February 27 – March 5
Business Coouncil’s “take” on what to watch for at the National People’s
Congress session that starts March 5.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Ford-slashes-2-000-jobs-in-China-after-sales-drop-nearly-40 Auto slump hits Ford in Chongqing. Article points to Ford-specific problems.
https://www.uschina.org/cmi/survey-finds-party-groups-have-little-impact-foreign-companies-china-november-7-2018 From US-China Business Council survey of member companies last November, regarding CCP Party Committees in their China companies: surprising results. FULL MEMBER SURVEY RESULTS CLICKABLE AT https://www.uschina.org/node/6166 .
https://georgemagnus.com/chinas-unemployment-is-moving-centre-stage/ A stimulating article on a topic not often addressed but of particular salience as China’s economy slows: unemployment in the PRC.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/theres-no-money-right-now-chinas-building-boom-runs-into-a-great-wall-of-debt-11551267002 From Guizhou, a powerful story of local development, debt, and the evaporation of both funds and hopes in a very poor part of China.
https://jamestown.org/program/the-chinese-navys-marine-corps-part-2-chain-of-command-reforms-and-evolving-training/?platform=hootsuite Elaborate and detailed analysis of development of China’s Marine Corps, the key element in any military operating involving waterborne landings.
https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/03/the-not-at-all-autonomous-xinjiang-uyghur-autonomous-region-an-international-human-rights-embarrassment-and-pothole-on-chinas-belt-and-road/ Professor June Dreyer of the University of Miami writes a critical, comprehensive essay on the Uighur situation in Xinjiang, past, present and future. Important reading.
https://soundcloud.com/merics-612350689 Another podcast, this time with the very interesting expert on film in China, Prof. Ying Zhu. Discusses the work of Director Zhang Yimou, whose fil was yanked at the very last moment from the current Berlin Film Festival.
https://chinaipr.com/2019/02/27/catching-up-with-the-literature-on-forced-tech-transfer/ MUST Read on forced technology transfer.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2019/02/28/466768/mapping-chinas-global-governance-ambitions/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axioschina&stream=top The Center for American Progress, a so-called “liberal think tank” with an extensive and sobering dissection of what it sees as Xi’s and China’s global governance intentions.
https://www.ft.com/content/059c4498-3c0f-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0 An interesting report suggesting that the PLA faces far greater weaknesses than the current dominant U.S. narrative about Chinese expanding military might siuggests.
U.S. – China
Swaine of Carnegie continues to distinguish himself, albeit in a lonelier
fashion these days, with his balanced assessments of the US-China situation.
https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/08/13/us-china-relations-who-lost-them/ On the
other hand, from last July, this bitter and accusatory article, shrewdly titled
“Who Lost China?”, is a quintessential write-up of the PRC’s economic sins and,
in the author’s views, the failure of “pretty much everyone” since the time of
Richard Nixon to stymie China’s ambitions and misbehaviors that now,
cumulatively, pose such a threat to the U.S.
By the head of an information technology trade association in
writeup of a glum AmCham China annual member survey looking ahead to 2019. Plenty of caution and considerable
curtailment of ambitions.
Elizabeth Economy covers a vast amount of territory in this longish piece on
the “reset” that has swept through American policy circles with respect to
China. Not a bad one-stop tour of much
of the current landscape. Plenty of
responsibility to go ‘round, but in keeping with her recent book, Economy
places primary emphasis on the changes in China’s trajectory brought about by
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U189yfxoL9k&feature=youtu.be Good video with David Dollar, Scott Kennedy, and Amb. Jorge Guajardo (former Mexican ambassador to China). Guajardo’s insights are sharp. This really is a fine discussion
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/27/china-college-confucius-institutes-1221768 U.S. Senate “Homeland Security Committee” report lashes PRC’s Confucius Institutes, argues they should not exist on US campuses absent complete transparency and 100% reciprocal welcome in China. See also https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/696859.pdf , a major U.S. Government Accountability Office study of Confucius Institutes. Issued February 2019, of somewhat different analysis and findings.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/431676-we-have-reached-the-end-game-in-the-trade-war?utm_source=ICAS+Bulletin&utm_campaign=8fa2434ae3-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_16_06_12_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_16ad515e4a-8fa2434ae3-213862917 Good analysis of what COULD come out of the prolonged US-PRC economic and trade negotiations, by three well-credentialed former USG officials.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/amp/story/2019/03/01/trump-phony-trade-war-china-225514?__twitter_impression=true A blunt American criticism of what this author dubs a “phony” trade war between the US (more specifically, the President) and China. There is more to this situation than this author recognizes, but his pushback is a refreshing deviation from current trends nevertheless.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2019/02/28/the-china-enforcement-puzzle/#11a9ca456acf On the enforcement problem in US-China trade. Current arrangements leave US dissatisfied, but author’s recommendations run contrary to current US approaches.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pompeo-promises-intervention-if-philippines-is-attacked-in-south-china-sea-amid-rising-chinese-militarization/2019/02/28/5288768a-3b53-11e9-b10b-f05a22e75865_story.html?utm_term=.e676ed34e0f0 Secretary of State Pompeo pledges US military response if anyone attacks Philippine ships or planes in SCS. Given Duterte’s very public flirtation with Beijing, could it be that he is playing the US and China off against each other???
https://www.tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/75-a-us-china-farm-subsidy-fight-at-the-wto/ Useful podcast on new US victory in WTO case against China over subsidies to farm crops.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-china-trump-risks-repeating-experience-of-bush-and-obama-11551275437?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/1PBE7WITCN Jitters that Trump, needing China more than China needs the US as their negotiations enter the final stage, will give away the store to XJP. All just wheel-spinning for now.