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贾庆国:朝鲜半岛无核化前景不容乐观(中英文)

作者:贾庆国   来源:北京大学中外人文交流研究基地  已有 1978人浏览 字体放大  字体缩小

722日,由韩国东北亚研究基金会(NEAR)主办的中日韩三边首尔进程会议在线上顺利召开。全国政协常委,北京大学国际关系学院原院长、中外人文交流研究基地主任贾庆国教授受邀参会并发表题为朝鲜半岛无核化前景不容乐观”(“No reason for optimism: denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula”)的演讲,以下为中英演讲全文。 

朝鲜半岛无核化前景不容乐观
No Reason for Optimism: Denuclearization of The Korean Peninsula

我对朝鲜半岛无核化的形势不乐观。朝鲜看上去没有放弃核武器的意思。事实上,朝鲜已下决心不放弃核武器。在美朝峰会期间,朝鲜曾提出优先发展经济的战略。但美朝河内峰会失败后,朝鲜决定重新回到经济建设和军事建设并重的路线。 

第二,美国没有表现出解决朝鲜半岛核问题的决心。不管人们怎么说,事实是美国在没有中国合作的情况下无法解决朝鲜半岛核问题。拜登政府目前的政策是不靠中国解决朝核问题,这种做法是注定要失败的。 

由于中美关系的恶化和美国对中国的敌视政策,中国没有愿意参与对朝鲜施加更大压力的国际合作。所以,对朝核问题解决的前景没有理由乐观。 

问题的主要根源在于美国对中国的敌视态度。一开始是特朗普政府采用这个态度,拜登政府又几乎全盘继承了特朗普对华的敌视政策。虽然拜登政府声称要以所谓竞争、合作、对抗的方式处理中美关系,但到目前为止,中国感受到的只有竞争和对抗。 

美国期望一边对中国敌对,一边让中国跟美国在美国选择的问题上合作,这是一厢情愿的。在中国从美国哪里没有得到应有的尊重,面对的只是竞争与对抗的情况下,中国是不会与美国合作的。美国的上述做法正在不断削弱中国国内支持中美在朝核问题上合作的声音。 

几年前中国国内有不少人是支持中美联手解决朝核问题的。但是,现在支持的人很少了,中国国内已经很少听到有人公开呼吁中国在这个问题上合作了。我们经常说,朝鲜半岛无核化是中国和美国的共同利益,但是,共同之处似乎正在消失。面对美国对中国的敌视政策,很多中国人已经改变了他们的想法。 

此外,朝鲜也将中美关系的紧张视为一个巨大的机会。只要中美继续相互对抗,它们就不会在朝鲜半岛问题上合作,朝鲜就可以一直依靠中国的支持。正是在此背景下,中国和朝鲜最近续签了《友好合作互助条约》,中国与俄罗斯还提议取消部分联合国对朝鲜制裁,作为对平壤近几年没有进行核试验和远程导弹实验的奖励。 

此外,美国现在处于一个内向的阶段,它将很大一部分精力用于处理国内事务。尽管拜登在总统选举中获胜,但美国的政治内斗并未得到有效缓解。面对不合作的共和党,无论是为了确保参议院批准内阁官员的提名,还是希望国会批准其防治新冠疫情、振兴经济或重建基础设施的法案,拜登政府在国内各种事务上都需要投入更多的时间和精力。 

因此,美国的注意力大部分放在在国内,而不是海外。在海外,美国政府的首要任务是遏制中国,而不是应对全球问题和国际挑战,至少这是中国人的感觉。因为害怕国内的反应,美国不愿意对中国做出任何让步。但问题是,如果不能获得中国的支持,美国很难在国际层面上做成什么事。 

那么未来走向如何?我认为并不乐观。
       首先,由于国内政治的原因,中美政策不太可能有实质性的改变。
 

第二,面对美国的敌对,中国不太可能在包括朝鲜半岛无核化在内的许多国际问题上与拜登政府合作。中国将表示会继续支持朝鲜半岛无核化,中国不太可能同意对朝鲜施加更大的压力,比如加大联合国制裁。 

第三,如果没有中国的合作,在朝核问题上开展多边合作就机会渺茫。我们谈到了六方会谈,这很好。我认为六方会谈仍然是解决朝核问题的最佳机制。但问题是,如果没有中美合作,就很难重新启动六方会谈,更不用说使这个机制有效运作。 

最后,在这种情况下,朝鲜不太可能在朝核问题上做出让步。它不能依靠美国。但只要中美关系出现问题,它就可以继续指望获得中国的帮助。谢谢。

I think the situation for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is not good. North Korea doesn't appear to be willing to give up its nuclear weapons. Actually, it iss determined not to give up nuclear weapons. It used to have the so-called economic first strategy during the Kim-Trump summit. But after the failure of the Kim-Trump summit, they decided to return back to the previous policy that prioritizes both the military and the economy.

Second, the U.S. has shown little resolve to address the North Korean nuclear problem. Despite all the rhetoric, we know that the U.S. cannot solve the problem without working with China. The Bidenhe administration's current approach is to deal with North Korea without China. I think it is doom to fail.

Because of the deterioration of U.S.-China relations and the U.S policy, which is essentially hostile to China at the moment, we are not going to see China's willingness to participate in international collaboration to pressure North Korea to give up nuclear weapons.So, there is no good reason to be optimistc about the resolution of the North Korean nuclear problem. 


The cause of most of these problems is the U.S.'s hostile approach towards China.This approach was adopted by the Trump administration, but has been inherited by the Biden administration to a large extent. Of course, the Biden Administration has been talking about "3 C's"[1], but so far what the Chinese have seen is only "2 C's" —— competition and conflict.

The U.S. expects China to cooperate with the U.S. on what U.S. wants while taking this hostile approach toward China. I think it is not going to work. China is not going to cooperate with the U.S. if what the Chinese get is a lot of disrespect, conflict, and competition. This approach has eroded China's domestic support for cooperation with the U.S. to put pressure on North Korea on denuclearization.

A few years ago we had the support. But now, the support is almost gone. Very few people are now saying that China should work with the U.S. We often talk about common interests——the North Korea denuclearization is China and the U.S.'s common interest. But this commonness is disappearing. A lot of Chinese have changed their mind, because of their perceived approach of the U.S.

In addition, North Korea has seen this as a great opportunity. As long as the U.S.-China relationship is in trouble, they are not going to work together on North Korea. If they don't work together on North Korea, then North Korea can always rely on China for support. Recently, Against this background, it is not surprising to see China and North Korea recently renewed mutual defense treaty. And China and Russia are calling for lifting some of the UN sanctions on North Korea to reward it for having not conducted any new nuclear or long-range missile tests in recent years.

Also, at the moment, the U.S. is largely in the inward-looking mode. Despite Biden's win in the presidential election, the political infighting in the U.S. continues. Confronted with an uncooperative republican party, the Biden Administration has to devote most of its time and energy to get anything done at home, whether it is securing Senate approval of the nomination of cabinet officers or Congressional endorsement of its bills to fight the pandemic, revive the economy or rebuild the infrastructure.

So its focus is at home, not overseas. For Overseas, The U.S. priority is to contain China, rather than to deal with the global problems and international challenges. At least this is the Chinese impression. It's unwilling to make any concession to China because it's afraid of domestic repercussions. But the problem is, as long as they cannot secure China's support, it's difficult for the U.S. to accomplish much at the international level.

So what about the future? I think the future is not good.

First, the U.S. policy and China policy are unlikely to change in a substantive way because of domestic politics.


Secondly, confronted with this perceived hostile approach of the U.S., China is unlikely to cooperate with the Biden administration on many issues including the North Korean denuclearization. It will continue to support denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. However, if you ask China to put more pressure on North Korea, like endorsing additional UN sanctions, China is unlikely to do it.

Thirdly, without China's cooperation, the chance for multilateral cooperation on the North Korea nuclear issue remain very small. We talked about six parties. That's great. I think six-party talks remain to be the best mechanism for addressing the North Korean problem. But the problem is, without China-U.S. cooperation, it's very difficult to restart the six-party talks, let alone make it work effectively. 


Finally, under the circumstances, North Korea is unlikely to make concessions. It cannot rely on the U.S. But it can hang on China as long as the China-U.S. relationship is in trouble. Thank you.

[1] Confront, Cooperate, Compete. 

发布时间:2021年10月29日 来源时间:2021年10月29日
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