7月22日，由韩国东北亚研究基金会(NEAR)主办的中日韩三边“首尔进程”会议在线上顺利召开。全国政协常委，北京大学国际关系学院原院长、中外人文交流研究基地主任贾庆国教授受邀参会并发表题为“朝鲜半岛无核化前景不容乐观”(“No reason for optimism: denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula”)的演讲，以下为中英演讲全文。
No Reason for Optimism: Denuclearization of The Korean Peninsula
I think the situation for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is not good. North Korea doesn't appear to be willing to give up its nuclear weapons. Actually, it iss determined not to give up nuclear weapons. It used to have the so-called economic first strategy during the Kim-Trump summit. But after the failure of the Kim-Trump summit, they decided to return back to the previous policy that prioritizes both the military and the economy.
Second, the U.S. has shown little resolve to address the North Korean nuclear problem. Despite all the rhetoric, we know that the U.S. cannot solve the problem without working with China. The Bidenhe administration's current approach is to deal with North Korea without China. I think it is doom to fail.
Because of the deterioration of U.S.-China relations and the U.S policy, which is essentially hostile to China at the moment, we are not going to see China's willingness to participate in international collaboration to pressure North Korea to give up nuclear weapons.So, there is no good reason to be optimistc about the resolution of the North Korean nuclear problem.
The cause of most of these problems is the U.S.'s hostile approach towards China.This approach was adopted by the Trump administration, but has been inherited by the Biden administration to a large extent. Of course, the Biden Administration has been talking about "3 C's", but so far what the Chinese have seen is only "2 C's" —— competition and conflict.
The U.S. expects China to cooperate with the U.S. on what U.S. wants while taking this hostile approach toward China. I think it is not going to work. China is not going to cooperate with the U.S. if what the Chinese get is a lot of disrespect, conflict, and competition. This approach has eroded China's domestic support for cooperation with the U.S. to put pressure on North Korea on denuclearization.
A few years ago we had the support. But now, the support is almost gone. Very few people are now saying that China should work with the U.S. We often talk about common interests——the North Korea denuclearization is China and the U.S.'s common interest. But this commonness is disappearing. A lot of Chinese have changed their mind, because of their perceived approach of the U.S.
In addition, North Korea has seen this as a great opportunity. As long as the U.S.-China relationship is in trouble, they are not going to work together on North Korea. If they don't work together on North Korea, then North Korea can always rely on China for support. Recently, Against this background, it is not surprising to see China and North Korea recently renewed mutual defense treaty. And China and Russia are calling for lifting some of the UN sanctions on North Korea to reward it for having not conducted any new nuclear or long-range missile tests in recent years.
Also, at the moment, the U.S. is largely in the inward-looking mode. Despite Biden's win in the presidential election, the political infighting in the U.S. continues. Confronted with an uncooperative republican party, the Biden Administration has to devote most of its time and energy to get anything done at home, whether it is securing Senate approval of the nomination of cabinet officers or Congressional endorsement of its bills to fight the pandemic, revive the economy or rebuild the infrastructure.
So its focus is at home, not overseas. For Overseas, The U.S. priority is to contain China, rather than to deal with the global problems and international challenges. At least this is the Chinese impression. It's unwilling to make any concession to China because it's afraid of domestic repercussions. But the problem is, as long as they cannot secure China's support, it's difficult for the U.S. to accomplish much at the international level.
So what about the future? I think the future is not good.
First, the U.S. policy and China policy are unlikely to change in a substantive way because of domestic politics.
Secondly, confronted with this perceived hostile approach of the U.S., China is unlikely to cooperate with the Biden administration on many issues including the North Korean denuclearization. It will continue to support denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. However, if you ask China to put more pressure on North Korea, like endorsing additional UN sanctions, China is unlikely to do it.
Thirdly, without China's cooperation, the chance for multilateral cooperation on the North Korea nuclear issue remain very small. We talked about six parties. That's great. I think six-party talks remain to be the best mechanism for addressing the North Korean problem. But the problem is, without China-U.S. cooperation, it's very difficult to restart the six-party talks, let alone make it work effectively.
Finally, under the circumstances, North Korea is unlikely to make concessions. It cannot rely on the U.S. But it can hang on China as long as the China-U.S. relationship is in trouble. Thank you.
 Confront, Cooperate, Compete.