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中美持久战进入“相持期”,美国前四轮攻势均告负

作者:王文   来源:人大重阳  已有 879人浏览 字体放大  字体缩小

编者按:2021年4月18日,联合国工业发展组织咨商机构“全球中小企业联盟”年会在上海举行。联盟全球主席、德国前总统武尔夫、国际货币基金组织秘书长林建海、中国外交部原部长李肇星等均做了年会致辞。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、国务院参事室金融研究中心研究员王文受邀在年会上做了主题为《中美持久战进入“相持期”,美国前四轮攻势均告负》的演讲,受到了全场近300多位与会者的广泛好评。在年会上,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院还被授予“全球中小企业服务最佳智库奖”的称号。现根据速记整理王文演讲内容如下,相关内容还发表在环球时报英文版4月20日变局专栏中。

01

感谢全球中小企业联盟的邀请。主办方要求我就中小企业经营的国际环境尤其是中美关系的最新状况做评述,令我想起2020年7月30日,中共中央政治局会议曾讲过的一句话:“我们遇到的很多问题是中长期的,必须从持久战的角度加以认识”,这是继1938年毛泽东写《论持久战》之后、时隔82年中共决策层再提“持久战”。

“持久战”分为“战略防御”、“战略相持”与“战略反攻”。我想借此分享的第一个观点是,如果把这个“持久战”提法用于中美博弈,那么,当下中国已不再是战略防御,而是到了战略相持期。

新中国建立的70多年里,美国长期对华处于攻势地位。

美国对华的第一轮攻势从1949年开始,可称其为“军事攻势”,包括邻国冲突、军事封锁、核讹诈等,中国被迫采取抗美援朝战争、抗美援越战争,还研发了“两弹一星”,最终获得了巨大的战略胜利,捍卫了国家主权不受侵犯,解决了清末长达近百年的“挨打”问题。

1978年改革开放后,美国对华的第二轮攻势开始了,可称其为“意识形态攻势”。自由化思潮在中国一度盛行,加之1990年前后的苏东剧变,中国爆发了政治风波,陷入被动。但很快,通过1992年邓小平的南方谈话,以及此后的物质文明与精神文明“两手抓、两手都要硬”的手段,中国很快稳住了局面,市场经济的改革与发展出现了第一波高速增长浪潮。美国攻势再次被挫败。

第三轮攻势发起于2001年中国加入WTO后,可称其为“经济攻势”。美国公司通过投资、兼并、入股等方式,试图控制中国经济命脉,影响中国走向。但数以千万计的中国企业自力更生、艰苦创业,如华为、腾讯等优秀中国公司都是在此后迅速壮大,充分学习美国企业的先进管理经验、融资手段、科技研发等,最终挺进世界公司的一线阵营。2020年世界500强中,中国公司超过120家,数量超过美国。

第四轮攻势来得更猛。2016年特朗普上台以后,美国对华采取舆论抹黑、科技禁令、贸易加税等“多元攻势”。中国政府、社会、企业仍顶住压力,且变得更团结、更有韧性。2020年中国成为世界上唯一一个经济、外贸均正增长的主要经济体。中国经济稳居世界第二,并有望在未来5-8年内超过美国,成为全球第一经济体。

四轮攻势下来,美国没有占到实质的便宜,中国对美博弈的能力则得到了锻炼而飞速增长。现在,有理由相信,中国对美的战略态势,不再只处于防御状态,而是转入漫长的相持期。

02

“相持期”的主要特征可用三个“同一量级”来形容:一是“经济同一量级”。中美两国世界上仅有的二个GDP达10万亿美元以上、国内消费市场总额均超过5万亿美元、贸易总量均超过4万亿美元的国家,其他国家如日本、德国的量级明显低一量级。

二是“军事在区域内的同一量级”。中国军费开支约2000亿美元,美国军费虽有7000亿美元,但军力分布在全球而被稀释,缺乏在西太平洋全面碾压中国、军事遏制住中国的绝对实力。在东亚区域,中国军力与美国军力大体相当。

三是“发展模式全球吸引力的同一量级”。近年来,中国的发展模式正在全球层面上形成数十年前美国模式的吸引力。广大发展中国家在中国改革开放40年的成功发展经验中看到了不同于西方发展道路的替代选项,而且近年来中国在基础设施建设、社会治安、金融稳定,尤其是新冠疫情期体现出来“以人为本”的抗疫成绩,令世界多数国家都拍手称赞。

必须承认,在未来,中美两国谁都不能打倒谁,谁都得适应战略态势的重大变化。漫长的相持期,紧张也有缓和,竞争也有合作,会成为两国关系的新常态。这恐怕是所有人都得适应的。

但问题来了,中美持久战,战略相持期,未来会怎样演变?到底对全球中小企业来说意味着什么?在我看来,大体有以下几点:

一是中美博弈的相持期会持续很长时间。10年,甚至20年以上!在这个时期,中美两国在贸易投资、人文交流、高新科技等领域的紧张状态会成为新常态。但中美之间爆发战争的可能性不大,中国不可能军事挑衅美国,而美国也不敢对中国轻举妄动。

二是中国对美国怀有最大的诚意和善意。中国保持着底线思维,有底气捍卫中国的核心利益,过去70多年,美国的四轮对华攻势都没有占到什么便宜,未来中国更没有必要怕美国。但中国也不主动刺激美国,没有意愿代替美国霸权。

正如外交部副部长乐玉成4月16日接受美联社的采访,可谓是苦口婆心、语重心长地劝美国,“美国对两国关系的做法太消极”、“缺乏进取精神”、“中国主张竞争应该是你追我赶的良性竞争,而不是你死我活的恶性竞争”。乐部长还说,“中国不是美国的对手,更不是敌人,而是美国的抗疫队友和发展伙伴”。

一个巴掌拍不响,中国以柔克刚,正在一步步、智慧地化解美国新一轮“联盟攻势”,努力防范、遏制中美关系的继续下滑,同时也在中美博弈中一步步扭转过去的战略被动。比如,美国计划4月22日召开全球气候峰会,试图重塑美国的全球领导权。但4月16日,中法德率先召开了气候领导人对话;4月17日,美国气候特使约翰·克里访华,与中国气候变化事务特使解振华发表《中美应对气候危机联合声明》。这些举动都抢先在美国主导的气候峰会之前,化解可能出现的对华刁难与责任追加。

03

不得不承认,中国目前对美博弈的对策越来越娴熟。

这是令人鼓舞的信号,代表着两国博弈的持久战化。两国需要有漫长的时间去处理相互之间的竞合事务。

那么,对于全球中小企业来讲,意味着什么呢?一是全球中小企业界要联合起来,反对新冷战。中小企业是全球解决就业的主要组织,是全球经济的风向标与敏感仪。中美倘若发生新冷战,中小企业主们一定先遭殃。在未来,中美紧张新常态。二是全球中小企业界要继续奋进,艰苦创业,底线思维,稳中求进,努力创新。要知道,大国的博弈的持久战化,对企业来讲,意味着风险防范变得更为重要。

希望我的这些简短拙见能够对大家有启发。

谢谢。

以下为相关内容英文版

China-US game shifts into long stalemate

By Wang Wen

China and the US issued a joint statement on climate change on Sunday following US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry's visit to Shanghai and meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua.

This signals some relaxation of the tensions between China and the US. It is also encouraging and represents that the China-US competition has become a protracted war. The two countries need a long time to deal with mutual competition and cooperation.

On July 30, 2020, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee clearly pointed out that "since many problems we face are long- and medium-term, resolving such problems is like fighting a protracted war." It has been 82 years since Mao Zedong wrote On Protracted War in June 1938. If this "protracted war" is used to describe the China-US competition, then China is no longer in a strategic defense posture, but the two countries are in a strategic stalemate stance.

Over the more than 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the US has been on the offensive against China for a long time.

The first round of the US offensive against China began in 1949. This can be called a military offensive that included conflicts with neighboring countries, military blockades and even nuclear blackmail.

China was forced to engage in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, as well as operations to assist Vietnam and resist the US. China also developed "Two Bombs, One Satellite" - the atomic bomb (and later the hydrogen bomb), the ICBM and the artificial satellite. China eventually won a huge strategic victory and ensured national defense security.

After the reform and opening-up in 1978, the second round of the US offensive against China began, and it can be called an ideological offensive. Liberalization thoughts prevailed in China together with the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. A political turmoil broke out in China around this time, and the country stayed in a passive situation.

But soon, China quickly stabilized the situation after Deng Xiaoping's talks during his southern tour in 1992, and under the guidance of his two-pronged approach of economic development and promotion of ethical values. The reform and development of China's market economy saw the first wave of high growth. Again, Washington's offensive was thwarted.

The third round of the offensive was launched after China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. This can be called the economic offensive.

US companies tried to control China's economic lifeline, and tried to influence the direction of China's economic development through investments, mergers and acquisitions. But tens of millions of Chinese companies, such as Huawei and Tencent, have grown rapidly since then. These companies learned from American companies' advanced management experience, financing methods, and technological research. And finally, they advanced to the world's top companies. There are more than 120 Chinese companies in the 2020 Fortune Global 500 list, outnumbering companies from the US.

The fourth round of the offensive came even harder. After Trump took office in 2016, Washington adopted a diverse offensive against Beijing. Smears through media, technology bans, and tariff increases are included. Despite this, the Chinese government, society and businesses have resisted the pressure. They have become more united and resilient.

As a result, China became the only major economy in the world with positive economic and trade growth in 2020. Currently China's economy remains firmly in second place in the world. And it is expected that China will overtake the US as the world's biggest economy by 2028, according to the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research.

The US has not gained any substantial benefits from the four rounds of offensives. Meanwhile, in the face of US' offensives, Beijing's ability to play the game against Washington has grown by leaps and bounds. Now, it is reasonable to believe that China's strategic posture against the US is no longer only in a defensive position. The relationship of the two countries has shifted into a long stalemate phase.

The main characteristics of a "stalemate stage" can be summarized as the three "same levels."

First, economic scales of both countries are at the same level. China and the US are the only two countries whose GDP stands at over $10 trillion, has domestic consumption that exceeds $5 trillion, and trade volume surpassing 4 trillion. Other countries, including Japan, Germany, obviously will stay at lower levels.

Second, the militaries of the two countries remain at the same level in certain region. China's defense budget in 2021 will be around $200 billion. Although US annual defense spending is over $700 billion, as its troops are deployed across the world, the country lacks absolute military might to crush and contain China in the Western Pacific. In East Asia, China's military strength is roughly equal to that of the US.

Third, the global attractiveness of both countries' development models is at the same level. In recent years, the appeal of China's development model is shaping up to be similar to that of the US model decades ago. Judging from China's successful development experience over the past 40 years' reform and opening-up, many developing countries have seen an alternative that differs from Western development model. Many countries speak highly of China's recent success in terms of infrastructure, social security, financial stability, especially the governing vision that puts people first. This was fully displayed in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

We must acknowledge that in the future that neither China nor the US can defeat the other. Both countries will have to adapt to major changes in their strategic postures. In the long-term stalemate, we will see tensions and relaxation, competition and collaboration coexist. This will become a new normal in their bilateral relations. Everyone needs to adapt to this.

(The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.)

发布时间:2021年06月22日 来源时间:2021年06月20日
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